The Economic Repercussions On Iran

Todd Moses
April 18, 2024

The G7, led by the U.S., will impose new sanctions on Iran's missile and drone program, explained White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Tuesday.

Inputs that matter: The new sanctions will also target entities supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran's Defense Ministry. "We anticipate that our allies and partners will soon be following with their sanctions," Sullivan said.

  • U.S. defense agencies are working on strengthening air and missile defense and early warning systems across the Middle East.
  • The G7 is also considering sanctions to isolate Iran internationally and increase economic pressure on the regime, White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters Monday.

The opportunity: One America News reports, "Multiple surfacing reports claim that Iran is now receiving brand-new weaponry from Russia, including anti-aircraft launchers and fighter jets."

  • Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi warns that if Israel takes even the "slightest action," it will face "a severe, extensive and painful response."
  • "Iran has several nuclear research sites, two uranium mines, a research reactor, uranium processing facilities, and three uranium enrichment plants."

Zoom in: Before the attack on Israel, Iran seized an Israel-linked oil tanker from the Strait of Hormuz.

  • This is Iran's sixth ship seizure this month, reports CNBC.
  • According to The U.S. Energy Information Administration (E.I.A.), the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil transit chokepoint.
  • 82% of the crude oil that moves through the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asian markets: China, India, Japan, and South Korea.

Between the lines: "We can't just pick and say, Iran is bad, but Russia is OK, and China is bad… They're all in this together," Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Sunday on CBS.'s "Face the Nation."

  • Iran is part of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the U.A.E.), which competes with the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K., the U.S., and unofficially the E.U.).
  • According to Voice of America, analysts say Russia has chosen Iran as a preferred partner with weapons and access to their spy satellites.

Follow the money: The oil markets now await Israel's response to Iran's attack to decide how much risk premium for crude oil there will be.

  • Currently, 80% of Iranian oil goes to China.
  • Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights have predicted that global crude demand will increase by 1.4 mb/d in the current year.

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Read More

  1. https://www.axios.com/2024/04/16/iran-sanctions-israel-biden-yellen
  2. https://www.voanews.com/a/moscow-sharpens-warnings-to-israel-in-apparent-pivot-to-iran-/7572766.html
  3. https://www.oann.com/newsroom/iran-threatens-second-attack-on-israel-with-weapons-not-used-before-receiving-russian-military-aid/
  4. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/16/iran-is-in-for-the-long-haul-with-oil-tanker-hijacks-expert-says.html
  5. https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4590389-biden-to-meet-with-iraqi-pm-amid-tension-over-troops-renewed-isis-threats/
  6. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Traders-Place-Bets-On-250-Oil.html
  7. https://banananomics.co/asian_oil_in_jeopardy_as_iran_awakens
  8. https://banananomics.co/the_world_takes_sides