The U.S. and U.K. imposed a new round of sanctions on Iran as House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) seeks aid for Ukraine and Israel.
Inputs that matter: G7 foreign ministers are meeting on the Italian resort island of Capri, with the agenda topped by calls Wednesday for targeted new sanctions against Iran over its attack against Israel and more aid to Ukraine to fight Russia's war.
- The United States, Britain, and several European Union countries have suggested expanding current sanctions regimes against Tehran over its support of Russia's war in Ukraine to include drone and missile deliveries to Iran's Mideast proxies.
- Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told The Associated Press on Wednesday that Italy supported targeted new sanctions against Tehran, specifically against the makers of drones used in the weekend attack and others launched by Tehran-backed militias in Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen's Houthi rebels.
- "We will continue to deploy our sanctions authority to counter Iran with further actions in the days and weeks ahead," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated.
The opportunity: Johnson is proposing to bring a vote on four separate bills addressing aid for Ukraine, Israel, the Indo-Pacific, and other national security priorities. Republicans have matched President Biden's original request for assistance to Israel ($14 billion) and some $60 billion for Ukraine, with close to $10 billion in the form of loans for Kyiv.
- "There's now concern that absent assistance arriving very quickly, Russia may be able to break through some of the Ukrainian lines and retake territory," said Michèle Flournoy, who served as undersecretary of Defense for policy during the Obama administration.
- "No doubt that Israel needs support for its campaign in Gaza, but the primary reason Israel needs security assistance from the U.S. is for the next war," said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundations for Defense of Democracy.
- "I think it's so important to provide Israel additional security assistance yesterday, not so much for the ongoing war in Gaza, but for the war that's coming soon with Hezbollah [in Lebanon] and Iran."
Zoom in: "The House must pass the package this week, and the Senate should quickly follow," Biden said. "I will sign this into law immediately to send a message to the world: We stand with our friends, and we won't let Iran or Russia succeed."
- EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said the existing EU sanctions regime would be strengthened and expanded to punish Tehran and help prevent future attacks on Israel. At the same time, he said, Israel needed to exercise restraint.
- "I don't want to exaggerate, but we are on the edge of a regional war in the Middle East, which will send shockwaves to the rest of the world, particularly to Europe," he warned.
Between the lines: Experts say Israel would have little trouble hitting targets inside Iran should it decide to retaliate directly for the unprecedented drone and missile salvoes of Saturday night, citing Tehran's obsolete air force and indigenous air defense systems based on aging Russian models.
- Iran is a "superpower in tactical ballistic missiles and UAVs," says Brigadier General Zvika Haimovich, former head of IAF Aerial Defense.
- Its air defenses are another matter, mainly built around Russian S-200 and S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems or a range of locally produced equivalents such as the Bavar-373, Khordad, Raad, Sayyad, and Talash, as well as old American and Russian warplanes, some of which date from the 1970s era of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi.
Follow the money: Despite sanctions, crude oil exports from Iran hit the highest level in six years, with almost all 1.56 million barrels going to China, earning Tehran $35 billion.
- "The Iranians have mastered the art of sanctions circumvention," Fernando Ferreira, head of geopolitical risk service at Rapidan Energy Group, told the FT. "If the Biden administration is going to have an impact, it has to shift the focus to China."
- Oil prices have fallen back at the start of this week despite heightened geopolitical risk after Iran attacked Israel.
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Read More
- https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-uk-issue-new-sanctions-iran-response-tehrans-109380698
- https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/former-iaf-defense-chief-iran-is-a-superpower-in-missiles-and-drones-but-not-defense/
- https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-797681
- https://thehill.com/homenews/4600919-israel-ukraine-aid-enough-wait/
- https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-aid-house-speaker-f08102e171dcac2d66d513980d828d49
- https://apnews.com/article/italy-g7-iran-israel-mideast-russia-ukraine-8caa7e352e0f78181a921f0ef73af367
- https://banananomics.co/help_for_critical_proxy_wars
- https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Irans-Oil-Exports-Climb-to-the-Highest-Level-in-6-Years.html