The Surging Arms Race Between China, Russia, And NATO

Todd Moses
May 01, 2024

The U.S. is racing with China and Russia to build hypersonic missiles that can avoid modern missile defenses and tracking sensors.

Inputs that matter: Tensions with NATO come from a 40-year U.S. policy that sought to play down or dismiss threats posed by China under the idea that trade and engagement would lead to liberalization and modifications to the communist system.

  • Instead, China has reverted to orthodox Marxist-Leninist policies under Chinese President Xi Jinping's national rejuvenation policies.

The opportunity: Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have united in challenging the US-led G7, which Beijing says is trying to contain its development.

  • Meanwhile, Austria calls for fresh efforts to regulate the use of artificial intelligence in weapons systems that could create "killer robots" as it hosted a conference to revive largely stalled discussions on the issue.
  • "It is so important to act and to act very fast," Mirjana Spoljaric, president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, told a panel discussion at the conference.
  • "This is the Oppenheimer Moment of our generation," said Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg, referencing J. Robert Oppenheimer, who helped invent the atomic bomb in 1945 before going on to advocate for controls over the spread of nuclear arms.

Zoom in: According to the Foreign Ministry in Beijing, Xi will begin his five-day trip to France, Serbia, and Hungary on May 5.

  • President Emmanuel Macron aims to deepen his personal connection with Xi during his two-day visit to France.
  • He appeals to the Chinese leader to urge Vladimir Putin to end Russia's war in Ukraine.
  • According to University of Singapore political science professor Chong Ja Ian, this trip "is an effort to try to pull at parts of Europe that Xi feels might be more sympathetic to his position."
  • Xi's trip comes as the E.U. steadily forges a more unified voice with Washington, opposing China's capacity for cheap exports and perceived national security risks.

Between the lines: Defense companies and startups are lining up for military contracts to create a new generation of space weaponry and adjacent tech, including space vehicles, hypersonic rockets, and extensive surveillance and communications projects.

  • North Korea recently launched a spy satellite and is planning to launch more.
  • China is "developing the counter-space capabilities to threaten U.S. and allied satellites and developing sophisticated launch capabilities that are moving much more toward reusable launch vehicles."
  • DefenseNews reports, "Russia, China, India, and the United States have tested anti-satellite missiles, and several major world powers have developed technology meant to disrupt signals in space."
  • U.S. Space Force General Chance Saltzman declares, "If we do not have space, we lose."

Follow the money: French President Emmanuel Macron suggested that France's nuclear deterrent might "contribute more to the defense of European soil."

  • French doctrine states that nuclear deterrence serves France's "vital interests."
  • The U.S. nuclear shield under NATO protects most E.U. countries.
  • Under NATO, an attack on one member country assures that all others under the agreement will come to its aid.

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Read More

  1. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/apr/29/us-research-helps-chinas-hypersonic-missiles/
  2. https://banananomics.co/breakthrough_defense_technology_hits_jackpot
  3. https://www.yahoo.com/news/xi-mission-drive-wedge-between-183136887.html
  4. https://www.reuters.com/technology/austria-calls-rapid-regulation-it-hosts-meeting-killer-robots-2024-04-29/
  5. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-faces-its-oppenheimer-moment-amid-killer-robot-arms-race
  6. https://worldcrunch.com/world-affairs/france-nuclear-weapons